Johnson Points to Packed Crowds as Forecasts Show a House Loss

Jimmy Brown Politics 2 min read 0 Comments

Speaker Mike Johnson is not buying the forecasts. With Election Day set for Nov. 3, the Louisiana Republican is dismissing projections that his party will lose its House majority. He is pointing instead to enthusiasm and large crowds in battleground states.

In a 33-second clip posted Oct. 29, Fox News reported that Johnson dismissed the forecasts and cited "massive ground enthusiasm and packed crowds across key battleground states." In a separate interview, ABC News asked him about what Americans are paying at the pump.

Those two themes, confidence in the ground game and frustration over gas prices, mark the final stretch of the campaign for House Republicans.

A Message Johnson Has Repeated

This is not a new line for the Speaker. On Oct. 25 he appeared on "Fox News Sunday" with Shannon Bream. According to a short Breitbart clip page, Johnson doubled down on an earlier claim and said analysts were using "faulty analysis." Only the page's summary was reviewed for this story, not a transcript of the interview. Other accounts say he began saying the polls were wrong around mid-October.

A few caveats are in order. Fox's headline framed Johnson as calling the forecasts "historically wrong," but that wording is the network's, and the exact words he used have not been confirmed. Johnson has also not specified, in the material reviewed for this story, which polls or forecasts he means. His description of crowds and enthusiasm is his own assertion, not a measured figure.

Some secondary outlets have published seat counts and claims about past polling misses tied to his argument. Those figures could not be verified, and at least one set of reported numbers did not add up as written. They are left out here.

The Gas Price Question

The ABC News interview, conducted by ABC News' Jay O'Brien, turned to rising gas prices. According to ABC News, Johnson said:

"Gas is too high and it is because of the war."

The clip does not make clear which war he meant, and the full interview was not available for this story. It is likely the war with Iran. ABC had reported earlier that President Trump called higher gas prices an "inexpensive price to pay" for that war. Benzinga separately reported that Johnson has said disruption in the Strait of Hormuz "directly affects" gas prices. The exact date of the ABC interview could not be confirmed, though the network's page suggests Oct. 29.

What the Final Days Look Like

Johnson has now made his case on Fox News Sunday and in a Fox clip, and has addressed gas prices with ABC. His claims about crowds and enthusiasm are his own, and the forecasts he disputes remain unspecified.

Voters go to the polls Nov. 3. The results will show whether the crowds Johnson describes turn into votes, or whether the forecasters had it right.

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