A New York Post Headline Says LA Backs Both Measures. Statewide Polls Differ.

Californians vote Nov. 3 on 14 statewide propositions. Two of them are Proposition 40, a one-time wealth tax on billionaires, and Proposition 39, a constitutional amendment on voter identification.

A New York Post story, dated Nov. 2 in its web address, carries the headline that Los Angeles voters want billionaires taxed and IDs checked at the polls. Patriot Daily Wire could not access the text of that article, so we cannot confirm which poll it relies on, who sponsored it, when it was taken, or whether it surveyed Los Angeles voters alone.

Other recent coverage of statewide polls points the other way on both measures. Statewide and Los Angeles samples are not directly comparable, so the two may not conflict. The figures below come from news coverage of the polls, not from the poll releases, which we have not seen.

What the Coverage Says About the Billionaire Tax

Prop 40 would impose a one-time tax on billionaires who were California residents on Jan. 1. Coverage by Biasly of a Yahoo-hosted Los Angeles Times article describes it as a 5% tax on assets; we have not verified that figure independently. The bill would come due in 2027, with an option to spread payments over five years at additional cost, MyNewsLA reported. The campaign for it, sponsored by the health care union SEIU-UHW, estimates about 200 billionaires would pay and the state would raise roughly $100 billion.

Earlier polling was friendlier. A March survey from UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies reportedly found 52% support and 33% opposition among registered voters. We have only secondhand word of that figure, and the notes show support has fallen since.

According to a Yahoo-hosted article on the Los Angeles Times poll, about $368 million has been raised against the measure and about $36 million for it. The same coverage reports the Berkeley IGS/LAT poll at 50% opposed and 42% in favor, and a Public Policy Institute of California poll at 52% no and 46% yes. Bernie Sanders spoke at a "Ballots Over Billionaires" rally in Los Angeles on Oct. 5.

The measure also has a built-in obstacle. Props 41 and 42 would each nullify Prop 40 if either passes with more votes than it does. In the IGS/LAT poll, Prop 41 stood at 38% yes and 47% no, according to the same coverage.

Prop 3, which would make permanent a higher income tax rate on the wealthy that funds education, was reported at 54% support and 37% opposition.

What the Coverage Says About Voter ID

Prop 39, placed on the ballot by Republican lawmakers, is a voter ID constitutional amendment. California does not generally require ID at the polls, and mail ballots are verified by signature, MyNewsLA noted.

In the IGS poll, Prop 39 stood at 37% yes and trailed by 20 points, KQED reported. PPIC found slightly higher support, but the measure was still losing.

Some figures come from older surveys and are not current. An earlier IGS poll had 51% against Prop 39 and 42% for. AOL cited an earlier poll in which Republicans backed voter ID at 91%, Spanish-speaking voters supported it 59% to 24%, and Latino voters 44% to 41%. We do not know how old that poll is.

Why the Headlines and the Polls May Differ

It is possible the Post is citing a Los Angeles-only sample, a crosstab within a larger poll, or an older survey. That is a guess, and we flag it as one. Readers weighing any single headline can ask who sponsored the poll, when it was taken, and who was asked.

Mark DiCamillo, who directs the IGS poll, said of an earlier survey: "Usually undecided voters tend to break toward the 'no' side because it doesn't change anything." That remark was not about Prop 39 specifically.

What Comes Next

Results come next. If Prop 41 or Prop 42 gets more votes than Prop 40, the billionaire tax is nullified. The returns will settle what the dueling headlines could not.