This winter's heating bill depends on one thing, the fuel in your basement

The headlines about this year's energy shock have mostly been about the gas pump. The bill that matters more to a retired household arrives in January, and this winter it depends almost entirely on what heats your home.

Here is what the government's own forecasters expect, fuel by fuel, and the programs that can take part of the bill off your hands.

Your fuel, your forecast

The Energy Information Administration's September outlook compares the prices it expects this fall and winter with last year's. Averaging October through March:

The heating oil number is the one to notice. Most of the homes that burn it, more than 80%, are in the Northeast, and EIA says tight world supplies of diesel and heating oil have "raised domestic prices." Last winter a heating-oil household already spent about $1,749 from November to March, the most of any fuel. Our own rough arithmetic: burn the same amount of oil at a price about a third higher, and the same winter costs more than $2,300. A milder winter would bring that down.

For natural gas homes the news is better: EIA says gas storage is "on track to be above the five-year average at the start of winter," and it expects prices below last year's.

Putting it together, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, the group of state officials who run heating aid, projects the average heating bill at $1,030 this winter, up 8.7%, with heating oil up about 31%.

Four ways to cut the bill

1. Heating assistance: LIHEAP

The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program is federal money, paid out by your state, that goes straight to your utility or fuel dealer. It is funded for this winter: $4.13 billion went out in fiscal 2026, and the stopgap spending law signed September 2 keeps the government funded at last year's levels through December 11. The president's budget has proposed ending the program two years running; Congress rejected that last year, and the House's draft bill for next year funds it at about the same level.

• Who qualifies: households up to 150% of the poverty level or 60% of the state's median income, whichever is higher, and states can set their own limits within that. Households with someone over 60 are a stated priority.
• When to apply: many states open October 1, and several put older applicants first: Missouri takes applications from older and disabled households a month before everyone else, and Utah processes them first.
• How: call the National Energy Assistance Referral hotline, 1-866-674-6327, weekdays 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. Eastern, and it will point you to your local office.
• A warning: LIHEAP never charges a fee and does not give grants directly to individuals. Anyone who calls offering "federal energy money" for a fee is running a scam.

2. Free weatherization

The Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program insulates, seals and repairs heating systems in about 32,000 homes a year at no cost to the household. Owners and renters both qualify with income up to 200% of the poverty level, and "priority is given to the elderly." The Energy Department says a weatherized home saves $372 a year or more on average. There is usually a waiting list, which is the reason to apply before the cold, not after.

3. Winter shutoff protection

Most states limit disconnections in winter, either by date or when temperatures drop, and 45 have rules for vulnerable customers such as older people and the seriously ill, according to the LIHEAP Clearinghouse. Two cautions: the protections pause a shutoff but do not erase what you owe, and most do not cover heating oil or propane dealers, co-ops or city-owned utilities. Ask yours before you fall behind.

4. Budget billing

Most gas and electric utilities will average your bill over the year so January costs the same as June. It does not lower what you pay over twelve months; it removes the shock. For a household on a fixed Social Security check, one predictable number is often worth more than a lower one in April.

What to do this week

1. Find your fuel. Check last winter's bills: gas, electric, propane or oil, and what you paid from November to March.
2. If you heat with oil or propane, call your dealer about a fixed-price or pre-buy contract before prices move, and compare two dealers. Read the contract's fees.
3. Call 1-866-674-6327 or your county's aging office and ask when LIHEAP opens in your state. Apply as soon as it does.
4. Ask about weatherization in the same call, or at energy.gov.
5. Sign up for budget billing with your gas or electric company, and ask what winter shutoff protection your state offers.
6. Check on a neighbor. The people who wait too long to ask for heating help are often living alone. Four programs you already paid for can close a gap like this.

Price changes are our averages of the Energy Information Administration's quarterly forecasts from its September 2026 outlook. EIA publishes its full winter fuels forecast with the October outlook.

This story first appeared at Senior Daily Benefits, our sister publication on Social Security, Medicare and the money you earned.