Fewer Than 200,000 Americans Filed for Jobless Aid, and the Layoff Wave Still Hasn't Come

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time slipped to 197,000 in the week ended Sept. 19, the Labor Department's weekly report showed, the lowest since mid-July. Claims fell by 1,000 from the week before, and the four-week average eased to 202,250 from 204,000.

By the usual yardstick, that is a job market where layoffs are rare. Claims have mostly stayed below 220,000 this year, and a reading near 200,000 is among the lowest the series has recorded in more than half a century, Bloomberg noted.

A steady market with higher costs on top

The report arrives against a backdrop that has pressed on businesses and households alike. News reports say energy prices have climbed since the fighting with Iran began on Feb. 28, which feeds into the cost of shipping, heating and driving to work. Inflation data the Commerce Department released days later showed prices up 3.4% over the past year. Employers have absorbed a lot of that without cutting staff.

Hiring has not been strong, only steady. Bloomberg reports employers have added an average of about 80,000 jobs a month this year, including 162,000 in August, which was better than forecast. Economists surveyed ahead of the next monthly jobs report expect roughly 90,000 added jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, a one-year low.

What to watch

Weekly claims measure who is losing a job, not who is finding one. A market can show few layoffs and still be hard to enter, and Yahoo Finance's reading of recent surveys is that hiring intentions are "stirring" underneath the calm surface. If the monthly report shows payroll growth falling short of the 90,000 forecast, the low-claims story would look different: people are keeping jobs, but fewer are getting new ones.

For families, the practical point is the cushion. Steady employment is the first line of defense against higher prices, and a saving rate that the Commerce Department puts at 4.1% is thin. An emergency fund that covers a few months is the part of the budget a household controls whatever the claims numbers say. The next weekly report, due Thursday, will show whether the low reading holds.