Republicans Lose Congress, and Prediction Markets Turn Toward DeSantis

The day after the midterms, prediction markets began repricing the 2028 Republican field. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had been a long shot, jumped into contention for the party's presidential nomination, while JD Vance, still the front-runner, lost ground.

On Kalshi's market for the 2028 Republican nomination, Vance fell from 35 percent to 31 percent between Tuesday and Wednesday, while DeSantis climbed from 5 percent to 18 percent, the Tampa Free Press reported. Marco Rubio sat at roughly 22 to 23 percent in the same report. The paper said more than $78 million had traded on the nomination contract by Wednesday. We could not reach the Kalshi page itself, so those figures rest on that one outlet.

One clarification: the Tampa Free Press noted that its own headline spoke of DeSantis's odds of becoming president. The contracts measure who wins the Republican nomination, not who wins the White House.

The Numbers Depend on Where You Look

The figures are not tidy. A Yahoo snippet of the same Kalshi move put Vance at 27 percent and DeSantis at 17 percent. Tokenpost listed DeSantis at 15.5 percent in one market and 19 percent in another, and Townhall had him at 19 percent, up 14.6 points. We have not read those pieces in full, so treat those numbers as unverified. Prediction markets update by the minute, and different platforms run different contracts, so no single figure should be treated as the final word.

Townhall also put Rubio at 21 percent, down 3 points, while the Tampa Free Press had him at 22 to 23 percent. Reports agree that DeSantis rose sharply and that Vance slipped, but the size of the moves varies.

It is also worth remembering what market odds are not. They are not polls, and they are not campaign announcements. Tokenpost reported a survey of 850 likely Republican primary voters taken Oct. 12-19 that put Vance at 33 percent and Rubio at 23 percent, with 26 percent undecided. According to the same account, Rubio has said he would defer to Vance, and Vance has said he would discuss a run with his wife after the midterms. Neither has announced a campaign.

DeSantis Keeps the Door Open

DeSantis is term-limited and leaves the governor's office in January. On SiriusXM's "Straight Shooter with Stephen A.," he was noncommittal about 2028, according to the Tampa Free Press.

"Maybe someday. I don't know about '28, maybe later, maybe."

In the same interview he spoke about the cost of living, saying, "Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people." He also said, "This swamp here is the worst it's ever been." Townhall reported that DeSantis has criticized putting Kristi Noem in charge of the Department of Homeland Security. Some outlets have read his remarks as distance from the current administration and have tied his market jump to them, but that is interpretation. No source has shown why traders moved, only that they did. The Miami Herald, per a search snippet we could not read in full, said DeSantis has not ruled out another campaign.

The Markets and the Midterms

Prediction markets were widely praised for the midterms, though most of these figures come from search snippets we did not read in full. Benzinga and other outlets reported that Kalshi and Polymarket priced a Democratic House at 94 percent before Election Day. Covers reported that the two platforms priced Democratic Senate control at about 75 percent before polls closed, rising to roughly 89 to 90 percent on election night. Gaming America reported that the Associated Press called Senate control for Democrats at 11:36 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 3. CNBC reported Wednesday that Democrats had won 54 Senate seats so far, with Mississippi and Alaska still outstanding and markets giving Democrats 90 percent in each.

The record was not spotless. CNBC noted the markets missed Brazil's presidential race, where Lula had about a 20 percent chance on Kalshi, along with some Democratic primaries. Our notes also flag that markets had Iowa at 50-50 and South Carolina leaning Republican, but we have not confirmed how those races ended. Good at the big picture, shakier on the details, which is a fair caution for anyone reading 2028 odds two years out.

What Comes Next

The final Senate count is still being settled. Vance has said he would discuss a run with his wife after the midterms and decide after that, so any word from him on 2028 could reshape the field faster than any market swing. DeSantis leaves office in January and, by his own account, has no firm answer on 2028. Until someone actually files, the odds are a mood ring for the party, and this week the mood turned toward Florida.