Bessent Says Iran's Economy Is Collapsing as Treasury Tightens the Vise

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Oct. 26 that Iran's economy is coming apart under American financial pressure, and that the next phase of the campaign will be harsher than the first.

"I think that the Iranians are panicked. I think the economy is collapsing," Bessent said on Fox's "Brian Kilmeade Show," Fox Business reported. He was describing Operation Economic Outcast, an eight-week Treasury effort that he said builds on an existing blockade and goes after the foreign banking channels that have let Tehran keep doing business despite sanctions.

The remarks matter because they come as President Trump weighs his next move. Fox News, in its live coverage of the conflict, framed the choice as a deal with Iran or a renewed campaign to "finish them off." The sourcing for that framing could not be verified, and Trump's decision is still pending.

What Treasury Says It Is Doing

Bessent told Kilmeade that the operation aims to sever the financial and commercial links Iran relies on. Among the newer authorities, he said, is "shutting down their airline travel," a step he said has landed on the regime and its elites.

In a separate interview the same day with Iran International, Bessent said the coming eight weeks would be "even more intense." He insisted the target is the leadership rather than ordinary Iranians, and said channels for food and medicine remain open, though he added that the country is running short of the dollars it needs to pay for imports.

The Numbers, and Who Is Supplying Them

Bessent offered two slightly different forecasts on the same day. On Fox, he put the likely drop in Iran's gross domestic product at 20 to 25 percent, a figure that comes from search excerpts of the Fox Business piece rather than the full page. To Iran International he went further: "I would predict that from March of '26 until March of '27, the economy would contract more than 25 percent." The gap probably reflects two separate conversations rather than a revision.

He also described a state under strain. According to Bessent, some military personnel are not being paid, some police officers are not reporting for duty, the government is printing money and trimming social benefits, and foreign currency is scarce. Fox News, citing the Iran International interview, quoted him on the oil sector: "There have been no loadings at Kharg Island. Production is starting to falter."

Every one of those claims comes from Bessent himself. No independent data confirming these claims, or an Iranian response, has been found. Fox News separately reported that Iranians are panic-buying goods.

Bessent went a step beyond economics in the Iran International interview, as relayed by Fox News, with a message aimed directly at the public: "My advice to the Iranian people would be: don't pay your taxes." He also said the pressure is opening rifts among politicians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the supreme leader, with some Guard commanders cut off and unaware of how bad conditions have become.

A Forecast With a Track Record

This is not the first time the secretary has predicted Iran's economic end. In early September he spoke of moving to asphyxiate the Iranian economy, pointing to inflation above 100 percent and a collapsed currency. On Sept. 28, Fox Business reported, he forecast a collapse within two weeks. Benzinga reported in October that he said Iran had loaded zero crude in September and described the fight as an eight-month war. Benzinga also reported him saying, "I don't know how this ends."

Earlier predictions of collapse have not materialized. That does not make the Oct. 26 assessment wrong, but every figure in it is the secretary's own.

Diplomacy on a Parallel Track

While Washington tightens the financial vise, regional players are trying to cool things down. Fox News reported that officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran in an effort to de-escalate. Pezeshkian then flew to Moscow for a Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit on Tuesday, Oct. 27.

Next comes the second stretch of Operation Economic Outcast, which would run to roughly late December. Bessent has also warned of winter fuel shortages. Whether the pressure ends in a negotiated deal or renewed strikes is a decision that is still pending with the president, with regional mediation under way.