American renters are paying a little less than they did at the height of the 2022 surge. When inflation is figured in, the drop is a good deal larger: about 13 percent, according to a calculation published on November 13 by Breitbart News.
The outlet gives the credit to President Trump's border policy. Writer Neil Munro opens with the claim that "President Donald Trump’s immigration reforms have reduced average after-inflation rents by 13 percent below the height of President Joe Biden’s mass-migration policy." Whether the border caused the drop is another matter, and the numbers deserve a careful look.
Working from Realtor.com data, Breitbart reports that average rent was $1,774 in the summer of 2022 and $1,694 in September 2026. That is $80 a month, or $960 a year, in plain dollars. Breitbart then adjusts the 2022 figure for inflation, calculating that it would equal $1,953 in today's money. That leaves a gap of roughly $259 a month, the source of the 13 percent headline. Breitbart did not say which inflation index it used, and the primary Realtor.com page could not be verified, so the underlying figures are unchecked.
What the Other Numbers Show
Breitbart points to a broader cooling in the apartment business. Citing Macrotrends, it says a multi-family apartment price index rose $108 billion in 2021, hit a record $412.80 billion in June 2022, and stood 22.9 percent below that record in June 2026.
The outlet also says the country's stock of rental units grew from 43 million to 46.8 million by 2026, though the link it gives for that figure is a search results page rather than a data source, so the number could not be verified.
On the squeeze that came before the decline, Breitbart cites Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, which it says found that cost-burdened renters hit a record in 2022, with half of renter households spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities. The center's 2026 report, as Breitbart cites it, found more than half of renters burdened in 12 states.
The Argument for the Border
Munro's case rests on demand. He estimates that roughly 1.5 million new rentals went to migrants, pointing to a Harvard housing center blog post, and argues that the 2021 border opening sent millions of newcomers into the same apartment market working Americans depend on.
He offers examples. One case involved dozens of migrants found living in a single basement and paying up to $300 a month each; Breitbart puts the count at 70, while the CBS headline it links says 74. Another example is an Avondale, Arizona renter, whose rent, according to Scottsdale Realtors in January 2023 as cited by Breitbart, climbed from about $800 to more than $1,300.
Where the Timeline Gets Complicated
The trouble is the calendar. By Breitbart's own account, rents peaked in 2022 and fell later that year and into 2023. That is before President Trump's second term began, so much of the decline came before his border policies were in place. Breitbart's text also cites other forces as drivers, including waves of new apartment supply in the Sun Belt and people moving between metro areas. The one line it quotes from the Realtor.com September 2026 report is "Key drivers are shifting regional rental dynamics:".
The starting point matters too. Measuring from the single highest month makes any later decline look as large as possible. None of this means immigration had no effect on rents. It means the sources available do not establish that the border closure produced this particular drop.
A Quiet Washington
Breitbart reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and "other deputies" have "noted the gains," pointing to a Treasury press release and a post on X, but the article does not say what they said. It also asserts that the White House has said little about the improvement for renters and that investors are nervous, without naming a source for either claim. A further claim that after-inflation wages have stayed flat under the president comes with no citation.
Looking ahead, Breitbart predicts that progressive Democrats will gain influence in Congress in 2027 and push for more immigration. That is a forecast, not a finding.
No release date for Realtor.com's next rent report was found in the sources, and no White House or Treasury response to the Breitbart analysis was found either. The next round of data will show whether rents keep sliding, and the argument over who deserves the credit is unlikely to end there.
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