Despite Tuesday’s New York Times headline suggesting that half of Republican voters do not want former President Donald Trump to be the party’s presidential nominee in 2024, two new GOP primary polls show Trump with a commanding lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Trump was a near majority favorite in the Times poll released Tuesday, earning 49% support among GOP voters, which was 24 points better than DeSantis (25%). Tuesday’s Politico/Morning Consult Poll gave Trump a majority at 52%, which was 31 points better than his closest challenger, DeSantis (21%).
Other polls are even more heavily in the former president’s favor. The latest Harvard-Harris Poll had Trump as a 40-point favorite, while Emerson College Polling had Trump as a 35-point leader. The RealClearPolitics Polling Average now has Trump up 32.5 points on the field.
Not a single poll tracked by RealClearPolitics has anyone but Trump as the favorite if he chooses to run in 2024. Trump has yet to make an official declaration, previously pointing to restrictive campaign finance laws that keep him from doing that.
The Times headline asserting that half of GOP voters contradicts the poll numbers: 75% of GOP voters reject DeSantis (25%), 93% of GOP voters do not choose Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (7%), or the 94% or more who prefer someone other than Mike Pence (6%), Nikki Haley (6%) or Mike Pompeo (2%).
Morning Consult offered the deepest field of candidates, but it also found Trump to have a majority of support over all of them. DeSantis (21%), Pence (8%), and Haley (3%) were the best of the also-rans.
The Politico/Morning Consult was conducted July 8-10 among 2,005 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The New York Times/Siena College Research Institute Poll among 849 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.